History suggests the scenario is at least plausible
What does recent history tell us about how geopolitical opponents assess American resolve?
Japan in 1941 was rising. They had an empire that included control over a large part of China. But Japan wanted more. What was stopping them? The USA oil embargo against Japan was their main obstacle.
We now know that in 1941, the Japanese military had convinced their emperor that Americans were just ‘playboys’, without the stomach for a fight. Meanwhile, the emperor’s own Japanese military was on a winning streak. Was it so difficult for them to believe that Americans were no match for their Japanese Imperial Army, Navy and Air Force? Apparently not.
So, the Japan military asked the emperor to allow them to take the oil which Japan needed from others in their neighborhood in East Asia. Pearl Harbor followed. But of course, it turned out the US was not a nation of playboys. The Japanese had miscalculated.
But what does that history have to do with Covid-19?
Fast forward nearly 80 years, from 1941 to 2019. Could the perspective of the Chinese military in 2019 have been like that of the Japanese military in 1941? How could China get the USA to back off military support for Taiwan? What would it have taken for the Chinese military to convince Xi Jinping that the USA really could be distracted?
Not by direct warplane attack. No, Xi would never approve that. But, what about a clandestine attack that included damage to China itself. That might look like a lab accident. Forgivable, especially as the people of China would be suffering too. Plus, China could point out, through friendly news outlets that, the USA had actually funded the research.
The prize of Taiwan, on top of the prize of Hong Kong recently obtained and digested by Xi, these accomplishments together would cement his place in Chinese history forever. Yes, perhaps an epidemic of coronavirus was just what the leader would order.
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But what would it take? And could it be handled quietly?
Start with a humanized mouse in the Wuhan lab. Infect it with genetically engineered coronavirus. Then simply hand the mouse around the lab to workers not wearing adequate protective gear. Perhaps a trusted military officer from Beijing could supervise the activity, then be sure to destroy the evidence.
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